Due to the continuous escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, which is the "throat" of global energy, has once again fallen into a de facto closed state. A large number of ships have been stranded and navigation has been blocked, causing severe fluctuations in the international crude oil market. The spot price has reached a new historical high, and the global energy supply chain is facing a severe test. 

Geopolitical tensions escalate, and the control of the strait enters a new phase.

On April 9th local time, US President Trump explicitly warned on social media that Iran must not charge fees for oil tankers passing through the strait, with a tough stance. The commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy responded the next day, stating that both sides have recognized that the control of the strait has entered a new stage, and the navigation order has not returned to normal with the ceasefire. Currently, about 3,200 ships are stranded west of the strait, including 800 oil tankers and cargo ships. Although there is some ship activity in the Gulf region, the "dark navigation" phenomenon persists, and the normal shipping order has been completely disrupted. 

The sharp divergence between spot and futures prices has led to a record high in oil prices.

The direct outbreak of geopolitical conflicts has triggered panic in the crude oil market. On April 10th, the prices of international gold futures and spot prices plummeted and turned downward, while the main contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures continued to rise. A large amount of funds rushed into safe-haven crude oil assets. The panic in the spot market reached its peak. The benchmark Forties Blend price in the North Sea spot market soared to nearly 147 US dollars per barrel, surpassing the historical high point before the 2008 financial crisis. During the same period, the Brent June futures contract was at 97 US dollars per barrel, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened to over 30 US dollars. This rare divergence highlights the deep panic in the market regarding the shortage of physical crude oil. 

Supply has plummeted sharply, and the global production gap is difficult to fill.

According to a report by Goldman Sachs, the current export volume of Strait crude oil is only 8% of the normal level, and the supply of crude oil from the Middle East has almost come to a "complete halt". Everbright Securities pointed out that the closure of Strait has forced the oil-producing countries in the Middle East to quickly fill their storage tanks and forced them to reduce production. As of March 26th, the combined supply of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other countries has decreased by approximately 8 million barrels per day, while the global available idle production capacity is only 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day. The supply-demand gap has sharply expanded. What is even more alarming is that the long-term closure of oil fields will cause permanent damage to production capacity. Even if there is a short-term ceasefire, the supply is difficult to recover quickly. 

The oil price average will remain at a high level in 2026.

Based on the current supply and demand situation and geopolitical conditions, many institutions have raised their oil price expectations. Everbright Securities predicts that the Brent oil price average for the entire year in 2026 will be $85 per barrel. Due to the continuous restrictions on export channels, irreversible damage to oil reserves capacity, and the fact that the increase in supply from the Americas is far less than the scale of production cuts in the Middle East, the global crude oil supply gap will persist for a long time, supporting the oil price to remain at a high level. In the short term, the progress of the Strait navigation resumption is still the core variable affecting the trend of international oil prices.