The situation in the Middle East has added another variable, and the textile industry is facing a "post-summer cold snap"! Since May, the Barakah nuclear power plant in the Zafra area of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, was attacked by drones. Coupled with the ongoing escalation of the shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices have experienced a retaliatory surge. Brent crude oil futures have risen to 111.48 US dollars per barrel, reaching a new high in recent times. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has also risen significantly. This energy shock triggered by geopolitical conflicts is now impacting every环节 of the global textile market along the industrial chain. 

This drone attack incident is not isolated. Behind it lies the escalating geopolitical game in the Gulf region. Three drones entered from the western border of the United Arab Emirates. Two of them were successfully intercepted by the anti-aircraft system, while the remaining one hit the power generation units outside the nuclear power plant and caused a fire. Although no casualties were caused and the normal operation of the nuclear reactor was not affected, this attack directly ignited market concerns over the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and exacerbated the panic over the disruption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz. 

As the "throat" of global oil transportation, the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of the world's oil transportation volume. Currently, although a small number of ships are passing through this strait, it is far from returning to normal. The insurance costs for oil tankers have soared, and many energy companies have suspended vessel passage. Oil-exporting countries such as Iraq have experienced a significant decline in their export volumes. Coupled with the approaching peak of summer oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere, global oil inventories have reached their lowest point in nearly eight years. Under the combined effect of these factors, the sharp rise in oil prices has become an inevitable trend. This is undoubtedly a "cost storm" for the highly dependent textile industry on oil. 

The impact of the soaring oil prices on the textile market is characterized by "all-round and multi-level". The first to be affected are the synthetic fiber sectors. In modern textile industry, synthetic fiber raw materials such as polyester, nylon, and spandex all come from petroleum. Over 60% of the global textile fibers are synthetic fibers. The functional clothing we wear daily, such as windbreakers, yoga pants, and sun-protective clothes, have their core raw materials almost all derived from petroleum. Even the auxiliary materials like clothing dyes and anti-pilling coatings also rely on petrochemical products. 

Driven by the oil price, the price of synthetic fibers has risen by more than 15%. The prices of core raw materials such as polyester POY have soared significantly compared to the beginning of the year. Just for the increase in the price of polyester raw materials alone, the raw material cost of a 500-yuan mass-market hiking jacket has increased by nearly 40 yuan. At the same time, the rise in oil prices has also pushed up logistics freight, factory energy costs and fertilizer prices, further squeezing the profit margins of textile enterprises. Small and medium-sized textile factories are facing the dual predicament of "increased costs and pressure on orders", and some enterprises even have been forced to reduce production. 

The market chain reaction has emerged rapidly. The sharp increase in synthetic fiber prices has directly forced the textile market and retail sector to seek alternative solutions. The demand for natural fibers such as cotton and wool has experienced a temporary increase. Previously, due to lower-than-expected consumer demand, the cotton market performed lacklusterly. However, this time, the soaring oil prices have become the "trigger" for the demand for natural fibers. Many textile enterprises have begun to adjust their raw material ratios and increase the proportion of cotton and wool used, and the retail sector has also begun to increase the stockpiling of natural fiber clothing. 

It is worth noting that the current transmission of cost pressure in the textile industry is lagging. The spring and summer clothing currently on sale are mostly orders with fixed prices set in advance. The terminal prices have not risen significantly yet, but the industry generally predicts that as the cost pressure continues to accumulate, the prices of 2026 autumn and winter clothing, especially functional clothing, will likely increase by 5% to 15%, and the final cost will be passed on to consumers. 

From the perspective of industry prospects, the geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain. CICC Wealth Futures points out that if the actual blockade of this strait lasts for a longer period, the price of crude oil may experience another sharp fluctuation, and the cost pressure in the textile industry may continue to increase. However, China's textile industry has a well-structured production chain, and enterprises are alleviating their reliance on petroleum raw materials and resisting market fluctuations by optimizing supply chains, exploring alternatives with bio-based fibers, and promoting the recycling of used clothing. 

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